KUALA LUMPUR: Public Investment Bank Bhd expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent through 2025 after the recent 25-basis-point cut.

The central bank reduced the OPR yesterday for the first time since July 2020, but analysts do not foresee further cuts this year.

Public IB noted that the Monetary Policy Committee’s statement did not indicate a prolonged easing cycle.

The bank described BNM’s stance as conditionally accommodative, with future adjustments dependent on worsening global or domestic conditions.

“With two policy meetings left this year, BNM retains flexibility but will likely adopt a cautious approach amid global trade uncertainties,“ it said.

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd also projected no additional rate cuts in 2025, maintaining its earnings forecasts for Malaysian banks.

The bank had already factored in a single rate cut, adjusting net interest margin (NIM) expectations slightly.

“We expect a modest NIM compression of two basis points in 2025, averaging 2.06 per cent, with stable margins in 2026,“ it said.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd suggested that further OPR adjustments would hinge on economic data, particularly growth and trade trends.

The bank highlighted Malaysia’s stable labour market, with unemployment at three per cent, and controlled inflation at 2.2 per cent.

“The ringgit’s 5.2 per cent appreciation this year has eased import costs, providing policy room if growth risks escalate,“ it added. – Bernama