Latvia’s spy chief warns Russia’s militarised economy may not demobilise post-Ukraine war, posing enduring cyber and hybrid threats to the Baltics.

MUNICH: Russia is unlikely to demobilise its militarised economy even after the war in Ukraine ends, according to Latvia’s intelligence chief.

Egils Zviedris, director of the Latvian State Security Service (SAB), said Russia’s future aggressiveness will depend on how the conflict concludes and whether sanctions remain.

“The potential aggressiveness of Russia when the Ukraine war stops will depend of many factors: How the war ends, if it’s frozen or not, and if the sanctions remain,” Zviedris told AFP.

He warned that lifting current sanctions would allow Russia to rebuild its military capabilities more rapidly.

Some analysts believe Russia’s deep transition to a war economy could incentivise further offensives against European territories.

Zviedris acknowledged Russia has drafted military plans for a potential attack on Latvia and its Baltic neighbours.

He clarified that “Russia does not pose a military threat to Latvia at the moment”.

“The fact that Russia has made plans to invade the Baltics, as they have plans for many things, does not mean Russia is going to attack,” he said.

Latvia currently faces other significant threats from Moscow, particularly in cyberspace.

The SAB’s 2025 annual report identifies Russia as the primary cyber threat, a danger that has “considerably increased” since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

This is linked to Latvia’s staunch support for Ukraine and Russia’s broader strategic goals.

The agency also warns Russia seeks to exploit alleged grievances of Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltics.

Russia’s foreign ministry has repeatedly claimed it is preparing cases against Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia at the UN International Court of Justice.

The SAB report states the litigation aims to discredit Latvia internationally and pressure it to change policy towards Russia and its Russian-speaking population.

Approximately 23% of Latvia’s 1.8 million residents identified as ethnically Russian in 2025.

Following the 2022 invasion, Latvian authorities required Russian speakers to pass a Latvian language exam, with failure risking potential deportation.

 The Sun Malaysia