KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 8 — Malaysia will probably spend more on public subsidies and social assistance as part of its Budget for next year amid rising living costs, economists said, even as the government seeks to boost its revenue and strengthen its fiscal position.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who is also finance minister, is set to announce the government’s spending plan for 2026 in parliament on Friday, aiming to fine-tune the policies of his last three Budgets and align economic goals with a five-year plan announced in July.

While Anwar was unlikely to introduce new broad-based taxes, he could raise excise duties on alcohol and tobacco, as well as provide details on implementing a proposed carbon tax, analysts and economists said.

“Much of the heavy lifting has been done over the past several years, and the government is likely to ride on these reforms for its fiscal consolidation efforts. As such, we expect no major tax surprises,” CGS International economists said in a research note last month.

Malaysia has been implementing fiscal reforms to boost revenue this year, including an expanded sales and services tax, and a long-awaited adjustment to fuel subsidies.

US tariffs create uncertainty

The 2026 Budget will focus on strengthening social protections and investments in key sectors such as semiconductors and energy transition, the government has said.

Government revenue growth however may slow in 2026, CGS economists said, with state energy firm Petronas expected to contribute between RM billion to RM25 billion in dividends, down from 32 billion ringgit this year, amid weaker oil prices.

Petronas is a significant source of revenue for the federal government but its profits have fallen this year.

The government could further increase spending in 2026 — to RM430 billion from a record RM421 billion this year — prioritising higher outlays for targeted subsidies, social assistance, and public services, UOB economists said.

UOB expects the economy to grow 4 per cent this year, at the lower end of the central bank’s forecast of between 4 per cent to 4.8 per cent, and down from 5.1 per cent in 2024. UOB estimates a 4.5 per cent expansion in 2026.

The central bank lowered its 2025 growth forecast from an initial estimate of 4.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent due to trade and tariff uncertainties. The United States has imposed a 19 per cent tariff on most of Malaysia’s exports to the country.

Malaysia’s economy grew 4.4 per cent in the first half of the year.

The fiscal deficit in 2026 is likely to narrow to 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent of gross domestic product from an estimated 3.8 per cent this year, analysts said. — Reuters

 Malay Mail – Malaysia