ASEAN’s top three countries reliant on Persian Gulf crude face supply risks from West Asia conflict, with Philippines most vulnerable at 95% import exposure

KUALA LUMPUR: The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are the ASEAN countries most exposed to supply risks from the West Asia conflict due to heavy reliance on Persian Gulf crude oil.

Maybank Investment Bank said the Philippines has a 95% crude oil import exposure to the region, followed by Vietnam at 88% and Malaysia at 69%.

Thailand and Singapore have exposures of 59% and 52% respectively, while Indonesia’s profile is more diversified at 20%.

“The Philippines is considered the most vulnerable, given its near-total reliance on imported oil and its overwhelming dependence on Persian Gulf suppliers,” the bank said in a research note.

A large share of crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passing through the conflict-affected Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia.

China’s move to curb exports of refined products like diesel and petrol compounds these regional risks.

It exported 5.8 million tonnes of refined products in 2025, with key markets including Singapore, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.

In Malaysia, government subsidies have risen from around RM700 million to RM3.2 billion in less than a week following the oil price surge.

It recently increased unsubsidised fuel prices, but public subsidies continue through BUDI MADANI RON95 and BUDI Diesel.

Singapore plays a critical role as a leading international jet fuel hub, making any disruption to refined product flows particularly impactful.

For diesel imports, Singapore has the highest ASEAN dependency at 16% from Gulf nations, followed by Indonesia at 8.4% and Thailand at 6.8%.

The region’s reliance on external energy underscores its exposure to supply shocks if major producers impose export restrictions.

“For gas, Vietnam is the most dependent, with some 49% sourced from Gulf countries,” Maybank IB said.

Most of this is reflected in Vietnam’s liquefied petroleum gas imports, with around 70% originating from the Middle East.

The Gulf accounts for 37% of Indonesia’s gas imports and 28% of Thailand’s.

Singapore imports about 17% of its gas from the Gulf, with nearly a quarter of natural gas imports coming from Qatar.

Beyond oil and gas, the Persian Gulf is a major global source for critical commodities feeding into various supply chains.

Thailand is heavily reliant on nitrogen fertilisers from the Gulf, with 67% of its imports sourced there as of 2024.

An even larger 74% of urea fertiliser came from Gulf countries, while the Philippines and Malaysia have dependencies of 10% and 7% respectively.

 The Sun Malaysia