Analysts say Trump’s entanglement in Middle East conflict strengthens Xi Jinping’s position for extracting trade concessions during delayed Beijing visit.
BEIJING: President Donald Trump’s delayed visit to Beijing places him in a weakened diplomatic position, analysts say, potentially strengthening China’s hand in upcoming trade negotiations.
Trump postponed his trip by several weeks to manage fallout from joining Israeli strikes on Iran. This intervention has plunged the Middle East into violence and spiked global energy prices.
Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has seeded fears of worldwide supply shortages. Trump now struggles to define an end to the US intervention, with traditional allies reluctant to offer backing.
“A show of US force that was meant to intimidate Beijing has instead served to puncture the illusion of US omnipotence,” said Ali Wyne, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
“Unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, Washington now needs its principal strategic competitor to help it manage a crisis of its own making.”
Trump stated he expects to travel to China in “five or six weeks”. The prospective summit aims to formalise a tariff truce first agreed in October.
Trump’s weakened stance could help Beijing argue for deeper tariff cuts. It may also limit Washington’s push on other trade issues like access to critical minerals.
Top trade officials held “constructive” talks in Paris last weekend, setting the stage for the leaders’ meeting. Any chances of major breakthroughs “seem limited”, according to Eurasia Group’s Dan Wang.
Bilateral trust remains low after years of disputes over trade, technology and rights. New US trade investigations into excess industrial capacity in 60 economies have also drawn Beijing’s ire.
Analysts told AFP Xi will benefit from more strategic leverage as the war drag on. Beijing has so far ignored Trump’s call for help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
China also maintains tight control on exports of rare earths, which it dominates. These provide critical minerals needed in US weaponry like drones and missile systems.
“In theory, (China) could certainly disable new weapons production,” said Jason Bedford of the National University of Singapore. The absence of announcements suggests “no concrete results were made during the trade talks” in Paris, Dan Wang noted.
Xi and Trump “have other chances to meet this year”, she told AFP, but “the prospects of getting breakthroughs beyond lower tariffs seem limited”.
China could calibrate actions to shake Trump’s domestic position, where most Americans already oppose the Middle East action. Trump’s negotiators “want China to buy US agricultural products, which is important to the midterm elections for the Republicans”, said Wu Xinbo of Fudan University.
Any summit is unlikely to change broader geostrategic aims. The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on Iranian oil to curb prices, a move experts say benefits China.
China is believed to be the main buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, making it Tehran’s “main economic lifeline”, said analyst Henry Tugendhat. Beijing also has “no incentive” to stop selling weapons to Iran while the US arms Taiwan.
Locals in Beijing were circumspect about the visit. “Trump’s personality is that he changes every day,” a 50-year-old IT worker surnamed Huang told AFP.
“Even if he comes, he may have reached agreements with you, but he will change his mind. He is not reliable.”
A 32-year-old finance worker, Yang, saw Trump’s willingness to visit as a positive sign. “I think the United States still hopes to maintain a positive and friendly attitude towards China.”
The Sun Malaysia
