NEW YORK, Feb 13 — Shares of two leading US private prison firms tumbled yesterday over questions about the pace of their ramp-up as President Donald Trump’s controversial immigration crackdown faces backlash.
Both Geo Group and CoreCivic reported higher fourth-quarter profits, reflecting additional detainee volumes as US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) expands its personnel and footprint.
But shares fell decisively as executives faced questions about their outlook for 2026, including whether and when they might be able to bring online thousands of beds at idled facilities across the United States.
Florida-based Geo finished down nearly 15 percent, while its Tennessee-headquartered rival Core ended down 3.5 percent.
Other questions touched on how a halt to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding could affect company payments if Congress does not reach an agreement to fund the ICE-parent agency by a Friday night deadline.
“It’s a controversial topic, the whole illegal immigration issue,” said Joe Gomes, an equity analyst at Noble Capital Markets.
He pointed to the Trump administration’s announcement on Thursday that it was retreating from a major operation in Minnesota following heavy criticism.
“It raises a question, do they do that across the nation?” Gomes said. “There’s no expectation for that to happen, but you can see as an investor there’s a question.”
ICE operations would continue if there is another government shutdown, but contractors may not be paid as quickly, company officials said.
Siting in ‘red’ states
CoreCivic reported fourth-quarter profits of $26.5 million, up 26 percent from the year-ago period. Revenues rose 24 percent to $604 million.
Geo Group meanwhile reported a more than doubling in profits to $31.8 million. Revenues rose 16 percent to $707.7 million.
Trump administration officials have targeted 100,000-bed capacity at US private jails to detain immigrants ahead of deportation.
Both companies restarted idled facilities in 2025, leading to a current volume of just over 70,000 beds compared with 45,000 before Trump returned to office, CoreCivic officials said on a conference call.
But analysts pointed out on conference calls that neither company reached agreements to reactivate sites in the fourth quarter.
This period coincided with a partial government shutdown that may have slowed ICE, said Geo Chief Executive George Zoley, who described the company as in “active discussions” with ICE on filling six additional idled facilities.
Zoley also pointed to recent interest by Trump administration officials in larger “warehouse” structures as another source of potential business for the company.
“We’re looking at Southern states…predominantly in red states, to be very frank about it,” Zoley said, referring to Republican-led states.
CoreCivic owns five idled facilities with 7,000 beds that could be added to ICE’s network.
That does not include a 1,033-bed center in Leavenworth, Kansas for which CoreCivic in September 2025 entered a two-year contract with ICE. But CoreCivic is fighting a legal challenge from the city over permitting required for the site.
The company cannot say if their efforts will “be successful, and therefore, cannot predict if or when we will be able to accept detainee populations at this facility,” CoreCivic said.
“People had the idea that growth would come along faster than it has,” said analyst Gomes, noting that some investors may have thought the industry would have 100,000 beds by now.
Gomes pointed to a “misconception” after the election and a “wrong belief that you could snap your fingers and the numbers would just go up.” — AFP
Malay Mail – Money
